Try to read all of this over at FT Markets, where Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief FX strategist of UBS Bank has a thought provoking piece on the impact of shale. I'll only use the first and final paragraphs, read it all if you are a subscriber:
The future of the dollar is more likely to be determined in the shale gas and oilfields of Dakota and Texas than in the sovereign wealth funds of Asia and the Middle East. This is because striking new technological developments are set to transform America’s energy supplies, significantly improving the US balance of payments and the long-term outlook for the greenback.
Thus the conventional wisdom of an ever-weakening greenback is likely to become obsolete. Over the next decade, the currency is set to benefit from the US’s reduced reliance on foreign energy. That will be a positive shock for US consumers and companies and a negative shock for long-term dollar bears.
Check out the comments.Obviously the conventional wisdom FX crowd have a lot in common with the conventional wisdom energy crew. Again this sounds like the Sinclair Lewis Theorem: They don't want to believe.